Down 38% in 2026, Aditya Birla Real Estate gets Buy rating from Anand Rathi; 30% upside see

Domestic brokerage firm Anand Rathi, in its latest note, has initiated coverage on Aditya Birla Real Estate with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of ₹1,345 per share, indicating an upside potential of 30% from the stock's latest closing price. Despite the stock remaining under severe selling pressure and losing 38% of its value in 2026 so far to trade at around ₹1,036 apiece, the brokerage remains confident about its long-term growth prospects. It believes the company is positioned for renewed growth acceleration, citing expectations of a recovery in pre-sales, supported by the enhanced gross development value (GDV) of Niyaara Tower C and a stronger launch pipeline.Pre-sales recovery from FY28Anand Rathi said that the company is transitioning from a Worli-led growth story to a diversified, capital-efficient real estate platform, with an expanding multi-city portfolio and commercial annuity assets.It highlighted that Worli residential portfolio accounts for approximately ₹243 billion (50%) of the company's approximately ₹483 billion upcoming launch pipeline, making it the key contributor to near-term launch visibility, with the planned Tower C launch expected to drive the next phase of Worli-led growth.Anand Rathi said that following a sharp scale-up in pre-sales on the back of strong business development (BD) during FY23-25, a moderation in BD additions and deferment of the Niyaara Tower C launch to FY28 are likely to weigh on FY27 pre-sales.However, the brokerage believes the deferment is value-accretive, with the redesign and amalgamation of adjoining land parcels adding approximately ₹19 billion to the overall Worli gross development value (GDV).With approximately ₹60 billion of BD additions year-to-date (YTD), a further ₹600 billion opportunity pipeline and a stronger launch pipeline from FY28, Anand Rathi expects pre-sales to regain momentum, supporting management's target of ₹150 billion by FY29.The brokerage added that improving collections, divestment proceeds, and selective joint development agreement (JDA)/joint venture (JV) partnerships offer financial flexibility to replenish the pipeline while containing capital intensity.Anand Rathi said ABREL has established a multi-city development platform through 14 BD transactions across FY23-27 YTD.

With approximately ₹483 billion of planned launches and a further ₹600 billion BD opportunity pipeline, timely conversion and execution will be critical to sustain growth and drive recovery in pre-sales from FY28E.Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.